Europa League Matchday 1 Preview – Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Europa League Matchday 1 Preview – Wednesday, 16 September 2026
The Europa League league phase begins on Wednesday with nine matches and a card that is much more balanced than it first looks. Bayer Leverkusen and Olympiacos are the two obvious short-priced favourites, while Milan–Benfica is the headline game. Sunderland return to European football at the Stadium of Light, Lyon have a difficult trip to Anderlecht, and Rennes travel to Graz against a Sturm side that rarely makes European home games comfortable.
Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague
Sparta are understandably favourites, currently around 1.68, but this is not a trip I would treat casually. Ararat-Armenia have already had to play competitive European football to reach this stage, and home matches in Yerevan tend to be much harder than the difference in club reputation suggests. The Armenian side’s recent form line includes a win in their latest match, while Sparta came into the international break after a couple of disappointing results.
Sparta should still control more possession and create the better chances. The safer angle is not a huge handicap, though.
Prediction: Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta Prague
Best pick: Sparta Prague to Win
Alternative: Sparta Over 1.5 Team Goals
Omonia vs Celta Vigo
Celta are around 1.88 to win in Cyprus, but their domestic start has been poor. Their first four La Liga matches brought two draws and two defeats, and they scored only once during that run. The most recent result was a 0-0 draw away to Real Sociedad.
Omonia have not been flying either. They drew 0-0 with Omonia Aradippou before losing the Cypriot Super Cup 1-0 to Pafos.
That makes this more of a tactical game than a simple away banker. Celta have the stronger squad, but they have not shown enough attacking sharpness for me to trust a big handicap.
Prediction: Omonia 0-1 Celta Vigo
Best pick: Celta Draw No Bet
Alternative: Under 2.5 Goals
Milan vs Benfica
This is the best match on Wednesday.
Milan have started Serie A well: victories over Torino and Venezia were followed by a 1-1 draw away to Juventus on 6 September. They are still unbeaten and have conceded only twice in their first three league games.
The market has Milan around 2.05, Benfica 3.30 and the draw at 3.70. That pricing feels reasonable because there is not much between the teams.
San Siro gives Milan an edge, but Benfica are too experienced in European football to be treated as a normal away underdog. I expect both sides to have spells where they dominate the ball.
If you are looking for an Europa League over 2.5 goals prediction, this is one of the matches I would consider, although BTTS looks slightly safer because a 1-1 draw is very realistic.
Prediction: Milan 2-1 Benfica
Best pick: Goal/Goal-Yes
Alternative: Milan Draw No Bet
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland’s first European night at the Stadium of Light should produce a brilliant atmosphere.
Their latest Premier League result was a 1-1 draw away at Brentford, with Enzo Le Fée scoring a late penalty. They have already shown they can compete physically at Premier League level without needing huge amounts of possession.
AZ arrive after a good 3-2 away victory over Heerenveen and are exactly the kind of Dutch side capable of turning this into an open game.
The early market makes Sunderland favourites at around 1.70, which is quite short considering AZ’s experience in European competition.
I like Sunderland, but goals may be the cleaner angle.
Prediction: Sunderland 2-1 AZ Alkmaar
Best pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Alternative: Sunderland to Win
Anderlecht vs Lyon
Lyon are currently around 1.98 despite playing away, which tells us how the market views the quality difference. Anderlecht are approximately 3.40.
Lyon’s latest Ligue 1 performance was convincing: they beat Auxerre 3-1, with goals from Felix Bacher, Zachary Athekame and Ernest Nuamah. Their attack looks capable of causing serious problems when they can play quickly through midfield.
Anderlecht at Lotto Park will push higher than a typical underdog, which may actually suit Lyon’s speed.
This is one of the stronger Europa League BTTS predictions today for me. Anderlecht should create something at home, but Lyon have the greater individual quality in the final third.
Prediction: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon
Best pick: Goal/Goal-Yes
Alternative: Lyon Draw No Bet
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
The shortest price of the evening belongs to Leverkusen at roughly 1.21, with Celje around 11.50.
Leverkusen’s Bundesliga start was strange. They lost 3-2 at newly promoted Elversberg and then responded by smashing Union Berlin 4-0.
Celje deserve respect. They won 2-0 away to Aluminij recently and have enough European experience to know that simply defending inside their penalty area for 90 minutes is unlikely to work.
Still, the gap is substantial.
For anyone checking Europa League Asian handicap odds, Leverkusen -1.5 is much more interesting than accepting a 1.21 moneyline. The German side should create enough to win by multiple goals if they play at normal intensity.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Celje
Best pick: Leverkusen AH -1.5
Alternative: Leverkusen Over 2.5 Team Goals
Hapoel Beer-Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
This is one of the hardest matches to call.
Dinamo are slight favourites at approximately 2.05, with Hapoel around 3.40 and the draw 3.70.
Hapoel still have domestic fixtures before the European opener, so their final form line will change, but the basic matchup is clear: they will try to make the game physical and use home conditions to stop Dinamo finding rhythm.
Dinamo have the greater European pedigree and more experience managing away matches where a draw is not a disaster.
I would avoid an aggressive away handicap here.
Prediction: Hapoel Beer-Sheva 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb
Best pick: Dinamo Zagreb +0.0 / Draw No Bet
Alternative: Under 3.5 Goals
Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia
Olympiacos are another heavy favourite, currently around 1.38.
Their recent Greek Cup performance was impressive: a 4-0 away win against AEL, with Olympiacos controlling the game from start to finish.
Jagiellonia are not arriving in poor shape either. They beat Śląsk Wrocław 2-1 on 6 September and currently sit near the top end of the Polish table.
The difference is the environment. Olympiacos at home in Europe generally play with far greater intensity than they do in routine domestic fixtures.
The straight home win is too short for me. Team goals are more useful.
Prediction: Olympiacos 3-1 Jagiellonia
Best pick: Olympiacos Over 1.5 Team Goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 Goals
Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Rennes are narrow favourites at around 2.05, with Sturm at 3.30.
Current form points towards the French side. Rennes followed a 3-2 win over Le Mans with a 2-1 away victory at Angers, giving them seven points from their opening three Ligue 1 matches.
Sturm have been more inconsistent. They lost 3-1 to Rapid Vienna but responded with a 4-1 Austrian Cup win over Voitsberg.
This looks like another game where both sides can score. Sturm will attack at home, while Rennes have already shown plenty of goals at both ends this season.
Prediction: Sturm Graz 1-2 Rennes
Best pick: Goal/Goal-Yes
Alternative: Rennes Draw No Bet
Best Picks for Wednesday
There are no sure win Europa League predictions, and a Matchday 1 card is exactly where reputation can create misleading prices. I would rather combine protected markets than force nine favourites into one accumulator.
My strongest selections are Sparta Prague to Win, Sunderland–AZ Over 2.5 Goals, Lyon Draw No Bet, Leverkusen -1.5, Olympiacos Over 1.5 Team Goals and Sturm–Rennes BTTS Yes.
For a safer accumulator, I would use:
Sparta X2 + Celta X2 + Milan X2 + Sunderland 1X + Lyon X2 + Leverkusen to Win + Dinamo X2 + Olympiacos to Win + Rennes X2.
For a higher-risk ticket, I prefer:
Sparta to Win + Milan–Benfica BTTS + Sunderland–AZ Over 2.5 + Lyon to Win + Leverkusen -1.5 + Olympiacos -1 + Sturm–Rennes BTTS.
Final Score Predictions
Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Sparta Prague
Omonia 0-1 Celta Vigo
Milan 2-1 Benfica
Sunderland 2-1 AZ Alkmaar
Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon
Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Celje
Hapoel Beer-Sheva 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb
Olympiacos 3-1 Jagiellonia
Sturm Graz 1-2 Rennes
The most trustworthy favourites are Leverkusen and Olympiacos, but their outright prices are too short to be particularly interesting. Sunderland–AZ, Anderlecht–Lyon and Sturm–Rennes are the three games I like most for goals, while Milan–Benfica is the match where I would keep stakes smaller because the quality gap is almost nonexistent.